China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2028, five years earlier than previously thought, due to different recovery between the two countries after the pandemic.
For a long time, the global theme in the economic space has been the struggle between the United States and China. In China, it was projected that average economic growth would be 5.7% per year from 2021 to 2025, and then slow to 4.5% per year from 2026 to 2030.
Whereas in 2021 in the United States, growth is likely to slow to 1.9% per year between 2022 and 2024, and then up to 1.6% until 2030. Japan will remain the world's third-largest economy until the early 2030s, when India overtakes it, dropping Germany from fourth to fifth. The UK, which is currently the fifth-largest economy, will drop to sixth in 2024.
However, the UK's Gross domestic product (GDP) in dollars is projected to be 23% higher than that of France by 2035, helped by the UK's leading position in the increasingly important digital economy.
Europe accounted for 19% of production in the world's 10 largest economies in 2020, but this figure will fall to 12% by 2035. But the impact of the pandemic on the global economy is likely to come from higher inflation rather than slower growth, and the underlying trends, which have intensified so far, indicate that the world will become greener and more technologically advanced as we move to 2030.